Dealing with the Times of Crisis

(Part 2)

The question is not 'Could it happen again?', but instead the affirmation that "It will happen again". At the moment, compared to the 1918 outbreak, it appears that the COVID-19 pandemic will not prove as deadly as first thought. But it has had a terrible global impact in various other ways, and much remains unknown.

The Spanish flu was the deadliest epidemic in human history. It circled the globe in a few months, killing more than 50 million people. Some cities and towns saw thousands perish in a few short weeks. In some remote villages, more than half the population died. The epidemic emerged out of nowhere, sickened and killed millions, then disappeared as quickly as it had come.

Shocking as it may seem, this horrifyingly deadly epidemic occurred not in the Middle Ages, not in the time of the waves of bubonic plague that devastated Europe centuries ago, but barely a century ago.

Epidemiologists estimate that if a similar killer-flu virus emerged today, modern travel would allow it to spread worldwide in four days rather than the four months it took in 1918. The recent rapid spread of COVID-19 bears this out. By some estimates, 100 to 200 million could die in a similar pandemic today! After so many years, scientists are still trying to unravel the secrets of that epidemic are still baffled of how could an influenza virus - known primarily for its ability to produce aches, fevers and coughs - turn so deadly?

In recent years researchers have begun to see that the world of microorganisms is far more diverse - and unstable - than they had thought. As new technologies have enabled scientists to unveil and study the genetic makeup of living things, some of their discoveries are increasingly disconcerting.

The incredible variety and diversity of life we see around us is mirrored in the microscopic world - also all around us, but largely unseen and unnoticed. Just as people and animals reproduce and pass on their diverse genetic traits to their offspring, so do the other tiny creatures all around us.

And occasionally mutations happen. With viruses, that usually means decreased virulence. But in some cases the new form is more harmful. Scientists believe this is what happened in 1918. Apparently a strain of flu mutated and crossed from animals to people. That strain then spread around the world in the mass movement of soldiers and civilians during the throes and aftermath of World War I.

Somewhere along the way the virus apparently mutated further. Its genetic makeup differed so greatly from other flu strains that many people had no natural immunity and thus were defenseless. The mutated virus claimed millions of victims before it ran its course and apparently disappeared.

This crossover from animals to people is not without precedent. HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) and Ebola likewise crossed from animals to human beings, and our lack of any natural resistance is why these viruses have killed so many. (to be continued...)